The Nexus Gulf

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We have all heard that slogan that started back when Nancy Reagan was in Washington. It was all about drugs. Now I want to remind you this can be your slogan when you get one of those telephone solicitations from a strange broker or even your own stockbroker who is acting a little strange. By that I mean he wants you to buy something.

Currently we are in an advancing stock market and we all hope it is going to go higher and higher. None of us, definitely including me, knows for sure where it will end up this year. Barron’s, the weekly financial publication, has declared on their front page that “THE BULL IS BACK”. They are also guessing. But it makes you feel good.

It makes me wonder when I study the fundamentals of the economy how they have come to this conclusion. Unemployment just had an uptick, most companies have yet to declare a dividend, the American dollar is losing value against many foreign currencies, manufacturing capacity utilization is still low and shows no signs of increasing, balance of trade is way out of whack and on and on.

Yes, there is some good news. Many companies are “beating the estimates”. That means they are showing greater sales and profits than the brokers on Wall Street thought they would have. This is good press and usually has the effect of pushing stock prices higher. Many of these better profits are at the cost saving of laying off hundreds if not thousands of workers. And worst of all we don’t know if these profits are true. Many are profoma meaning management is guessing.

If you are one of those people who hopes the market will go back up so you can get out “even” you are going to find that hope is the most expensive word in the dictionary. But what can you do about it? You are now being given the opportunity to save what is left of your retirement account. On any stock or mutual funds you have it would be a guess to say this is the place to sell. The smart thing is to listen to the market and do what it tells you.

When any equity is advancing you want to set up a trailing stop-loss order and move it up each week as your stock advances. Suppose you bought a stock at $100/share and watched it drop to $15. Pretty disheartening! It has now risen back up to $30 and your broker has assured you it will continue to rise. Maybe. But what if it doesn’t?

Tell your broker to put in a stop-loss order about 10% below its current price. He will say you don’t need to. This is where you just say ‘NO’. Brokers don’t watch any but their biggest and most active accounts. He must do as you ask according to regulations.

Put in a stop-loss order today. Protect your retirement account with a simple ‘NO’.

INVESTMENT LETTER 3 months free at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
Copyright Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved. Author of “If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!” Former 17-year exchange member, floor trader and brokerage company owner. Copyright 2002

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According to Morton Pollack, CEO of PWS, The Laundry Company and editor of the newsletter, “Historically, laundry owners have been a quiet group. Knowing they are onto a good thing, they’ve been pretty reticent. However, many now agree that it’s time for respect to paid to this powerful investment vehicle and we hope the poll will play a part”.

Coin Laundries have historically been a very attractive investment yielding strong returns regardless of the ups and downs of Wall Street and the economy. Deemed one of the top ten safest investments by the Small Business Administration and Dun and Bradstreet, neighborhood laundries offer a dependable ongoing 20 to 30% yearly return on cash invested, according to the Coin Laundry Association.

“Today’s modern laundries are all cash, no inventory businesses that offer great tax benefits and require modest oversight,” says Morton Pollack. “We believe they are the best part-time, investment venture available and their future looks even brighter. The demographics coin and card laundries serve are the fastest growing segments of the US population. With so many proven benefits, we weren’t sure whether Laundry Center MarketWatch should name today’s Card and Coin Laundries the Sexiest or Safest Investment for 2005. So, we are leaving it up to readers and the industry to vote for their choice via our free e-mail newsletter”.

To learn more about the coin laundry industry, to receive your free subscription to Laundry Center MarketWatch and to register your vote as to whether Coin laundries should be named the Sexiest or Safest Investment for 2005, visit www. Laundrycenter.info or call 1 877-45 LAUNDRY.

Ilene Fudim is a nationally recognized expert in the coin operated laundry industry and a contributing editor to the Laundry Center Marketwatch newsletter. She has been instrumental in helping launch many successful coin laundry businesses.

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It’s fairly astonishing to think that before now, you could never use a one-stop shop for selling and buying distressed loan portfolios. This is no longer a cause of irritation, as a firm has recently emerged planning to use the new technologies of e-commerce to establish a centralized marketplace. Having developed a customer base as a nationwide platform, loans are put together into packages that are then purchased typically at low prices. Selling loan portfolios by this method standardizes the data and makes room in the market even for small packages. This service is able to support any portfolio, whatever its credit, size and performance.

Improve your access to investors by employing the reaching power characteristic of any online firm – make sure you’ve publicized your loans to investors. As a result of the coming of a space-independent, time-independent business model a number of other restrictions are erased and time can be saved. All possible leads need to be found and contacted for them to know you have products to sell. Accordingly, when you sign up for this service and list loans, we’ll grant you whatever required data, at any time. The sale of loan portfolios will become much simpler, and so much more efficient. Like a great many firms, the amount of information you can get hold of affects how well you are actually going to do. When examining any kind of loan package, transparent information gives you a fuller understanding of what you’re taking on and thereby helps reduce the risk you operate with.

Be sure you hop over to this #1 webpage for debt seller tips!

It is this level of access to data that creates the very real opportunity to handle these purchases on your own rather than having to funnel parts of your returns to a broker so as to manage your investments for you. Thanks to the need to strike a balance between profit and risk implicit in investment in loans portfolios, full and frank exchange with a transparent approach to information has benefits for sellers and buyers alike and thus full information disclosure becomes a business standard. Keeping the various types of loans standardized rather than fragmented means that picking out the perfect deal for you to invest in becomes much simpler. Time is saved in this manner – not simply for the buyer but just as importantly, of course, on the dealer’s side. Using this information access, the open bidding scheme generates opportunities for all parties involved to strike the deals they want. Boost the scope of your firm vastly by making use of recent evolution in e-commerce. Dealing in loans online broadens your reach dramatically, it standardizes information and leads you to the perfect package to strengthen your investments.

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Although in many ways in the online world it seems like a simple step, before this point the acquisition of loan portfolios has taken place through multiple markets rather than a a single outlet. Now, a firm applying the eBay auction principle has come forth and begun revolutionizing the model, with portfolio purchasing approached using an advanced mentality. Using this national bidding platform, subprime and consumer loans are packaged at a discount, available to banks and other investors. Using the net marketplace data on these sales can be standardized to great effect. This opening of the doors allows any loan to be examination on its own merits. Time and place are no longer important concerns and business can be conducted twenty four seven, which saves everyone a healthy amount of time and money. Just like all net companies, offering subprime and consumer loans for sale using this medium can reach many more potential clients with less effort than ever before.

Before you can sell anything you need leads to sell to, and these need to be located and contacted in quantity. Therefore, by signing up with this service and listing packages, we’ll grant you all the data required, at any time. Selling loan portfolios just became a whole lot less problematic, and much more effective.

The most assured route to success is through the collection and examining of targeted information. This form of opportunity obviously holds more exposure than most and the surest method of avoiding these, too, is qualified information. What price transparency?

This degree of accessibility of information creates the very real chance to handle such questions yourself instead of having to pay parts of the returns to a third party in order to manage your investments. Buyer and seller both can benefit greatly from open access to important information, and this makes frank discourse typical, effectively evening out profitability and exposure. Ensuring consumer and subprime loans remain standardized instead of fragmented means that picking out the right deal for you to invest in becomes much more straightforward. We therefore waste less valuable time for both buyers and sellers by rapidly finding the perfect package to suit you. Introduce to all this open bidding and all deals become far more likely to close with, thanks to full and frank discussion, a strong likelihood of profit for all sides involved.

Firms all over the world have leaped at the possibilities generated by the emergence of e-commerce, and as it begins to affect the business of loans, you’d be wise not to prevaricate. Dealing in online portfolios broadens your possibilities dramatically, creates a standard for information and leads you to the perfect portfolio to develop your investments.

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When talking about Rental Property Investments, the term ‘working capital’ has to be understood. There are two concepts of working capital: gross working capital and net working capital. Gross working capital is the total of all current assets. Net working capital is the difference between current assets and current liabilities. It may be mentioned here that though this concept of working capital is commonly used, it is an accounting concept with little economic meaning. It makes little sense to say that a firm manages its net working capital. What a firm really does is to take decisions with respect to various current assets and current liabilities.

The management of working capital refers to the management of current assets as well as current liabilities. The major thrust, of course, is on the management of current assets. This is understandable because current liabilities arise in the context of current assets. Working capital is a significant facet of rental property investments because investment in current assets represents a substantial portion of total investment. Moreover, investment in current assets and the level of current liabilities have to be geared quickly to changes in sales. To be sure, fixed asset investment and long-term financing are also responsive to variation in sales. However, this relationship is not as close and direct as it is in the case of working capital components.

The importance of working capital management is reflected in the fact that financial managers spend a great deal of time in managing current assets and current liabilities. Arranging short-term financing, negotiating favorable credit terms, controlling the movement of cash, administering accounts receivable and monitoring the investment in inventories consume a great deal of time for financial managers.

In the management of working capital two characteristics of current assets must be borne in mind. Firstly, short life span and secondly, swift transformation into other asset forms. Current assets have a short life span. The life span of current assets depends upon the time required in the activities of procurement, production, sales and the degree of synchronization among them.

Investment Properties provides detailed information about investment properties, investment property loans, investment property mortgages, buying investment properties and more. Investment Properties is the sister site of Loan Factoring.

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The economic data reported Fri showed continued above trend growth with disinflation (at the core level, excluding food and energy) in the second quarter. Real output growth has slowed from about 4% in 2003 & 2004 to just over 3 1/2% so far this year, while a core inflation rate fell from 3% last quarter to 2%. Consumption growth slowed from 3.5% to 3.3%, investment growth jumped 9%, and net exports increased over 12%. Also, business inventories declined.

Nasdaq has rallied 310 points in three months, and hit a new four-year high at 2,201 Fri morning. The economic data suggest market pullbacks will be limited, although we’ve entered the seasonally weak period of Jul-Aug-Sep after a big run-up. Consequently, there may be a consolidation period rather than a correction over the next few months.

The first chart below is a Nasdaq monthly chart. The long Price-by-Volume bar (on left side of chart) is a “sticky” area, between 1,750 and 2,250, that’s difficult for Nasdaq to break above or below. However, if Nasdaq can break above and hold the 80 month MA at 2,257, then it may sustain a rally to 2,645, the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Nasdaq has an open gap at 1,905, and the monthly Parabolic SAR buy signal (green dots) is currently at 1,904, which are support levels.

The second chart is a SPX daily year-to-date chart. SPX has resistance at 1,253, which is a multi-year Fibonacci level. The rising 10 day MA, currently at 1,232, has been recent support. There are many support levels between 1,185 and 1,225. However, the 50 and 200 day MAs are key levels. If SPX closes below the 200 day MA, then it may close the gaps at 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138.

It’s unlikely Nasdaq will hold 2,200 short-term. However, if it does, then 2,257 is another major resistance level. Also, it’s unlikely SPX will hold 1,253 short-term, which is a multi-year resistance level. I expect a more volatile trading range under those levels, since the volatility indices are so low. Consequently, SPX may test the 20 day MA next week, and test lower levels in Aug.

Next week economic reports are: Mon: ISM Index, and Construction Spending, Tue: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Factory Orders, and Auto Sales, Wed: ISM Services, Thu: Unemployment Claims, and Fri: Nonfarm Payrolls, Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.

Notable earnings next week include: Mon: TEVA HUM, Tue: CMCSA SIRI, Wed: PRU NT CI CVS DUK CPN HL TWX SINA, Thu: G OATS VIA UL TOT TOL SLE ONXX GFI CLX CQB, Fri: CBJ

I plan to continue trading puts on my “predictable” stocks, including two index ETFs, a biotech, and an internet. If the market rises higher, there are several large cap bank and drug stocks that should outperform, with less risk than most other stocks on pullbacks. See PeakTrader.com Top Stock Picks section for more information.

Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.

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Although closely related to and integrated with economic growth, interest rates move independently from the economic cycle. They fluctuate freely via trade in the fixed income markets. As such they are both a component of the fundamental analysis of stocks and other markets, and a market in their own right. What that creates is a highly dynamic element for the fundamental analyst as interest rates move continuously and are influenced by other market elements.

Most specifically, interest rates (a component factor of fixed income security prices) are highly sensitive to inflation. Consider a bond which pays out annual interest of 10% on a fixed principal amount (par value). The real value of those interest payments will depend on the level of inflation. The higher the inflation rate, the lower the real interest rate, and vice versa.

In order to keep their real rate of return at a steady level, fixed income investors will demand higher nominal rates from their fixed income securities. For example, at a 3% rate of inflation, a 7% yield for a bond might be fine, but if inflation was 5%, the required yield may be 9%, keeping the investor’s real rate of return at 4%. As bond prices and yields are inversely related, bond prices fall as inflation rises so as to provide the higher yields demanded by investors.

Since inflation is so important to the interest rate market, it should be no surprise that traders spend considerable time looking at those things which measure inflation such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a basket of goods and services designed to reflect the expenses of the average person. Changes in the CPI outline how much more (or less) expensive those goods and services have become. Since inflation is the rate of change in price over time, the CPI provides us a reading on just that. The Producer Price Index (PPI) does essentially the same thing on the business side.

It is not current inflation the markets concern themselves with, though, but rather future inflation. Analysis of the fixed income market therefore focuses on those things which can give a reading on inflation rates down the road.

So from where does inflation come? Well, what makes prices increase? It’s a supply and demand situation. If there is a preponderance of demand, prices will tend to rise as the competition to purchase drives buyers to pay more. Where there is an excess supply, prices drop as sellers cut their demands to unload their inventory. When demand increases in the face of supply shortages, prices move rapidly higher. If supply surges, but demand decreases, the rate of price decline is more rapid.

Since copper, oil, grains, and other commodities are the inputs in to the products purchased by consumers and businesses, they are watched closely as potential indicators of inflation. After all, as we have seen, if oil prices are rising we are likely to see higher gasoline prices as the pump. We can also see an impact on competitive products. Sticking with our example, when oil prices rise, there can be a similar move higher in natural gas. This is the result of increased demand in that market as people shift away from oil.

Labor is another input in to the cost of producing goods and services, so traders watch the employment data for signs of pressure on that market. Labor operates like any other market. When demand increases, wage demands increase. That is why economists and fixed income traders become nervous when the unemployment rates get very low. It suggests the potential for wage rate increases.

That said, however, higher input costs do not always translate in to higher prices for the consumer or business. Modern technology has led to serious gains in efficiency. As a result, businesses have been able to cut costs in other areas to keep their own total expenses from rising. At the same time, we come back to supply and demand. If businesses are in a highly competitive situation with others, one where there is an excess supply (in some manner of speaking) or demand is pressured, prices will be held down. As such, one cannot just assume that higher input prices mean higher output prices and rises in the measures such as CPI. It does not always work that way.

There is another supply/demand element involved in inflation. That is money supply. Some have legitimately defined inflation (in its negative, excessive sense) as too much money chasing too few goods. We have already addressed the goods (and inputs) side of that definition. The other side is the money. Just like anything else, too much money means a decrease in the value of it. So if the supply of money is rising while the supply of goods and/or services is falling and demand for them rising, devastating inflation can occur. (Germany between World War I and World War II is a very dramatic example).

This, by no means, is a comprehensive discussion of interest rate analysis, but it does get one started. Tracking interest rate changes can be quite exciting and rewarding both for trading purposes, and for use in one’s life (mortgages, etc.).

John Forman is author of The Essentials of Trading (Wiley – April 2006), and a near 20 year veteran of trading and analyzing the markets. Visit Anduril Analytics to learn more about his trading, market analysis, and research activities and to find out how you can get a copy of Anduril’s free report on what every trader and investor needs to succeed.

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In 2005, Berkshire Hathaway bought about a million shares of Lexmark. I haven’t followed this story closely, but I assume the stock was purchased by Lou Simpson rather than Warren Buffett. I have only two reasons for believing this: the total purchase was small relative to Berkshire’s investable assets and the Lexmark purchase is typical of Simpson’s investment philosophy (or at least, what little I can glean about his investment philosophy from his past purchases). Regardless of who actually makes the purchases, a new Berkshire holding always draws a lot of commentary.

The commentary on Lexmark has been almost uniformly negative. Even many value investors have a very dim view of Lexmark at these prices. Now, I am not a contrarian investor. Psychology and sentiment do not enter into my considerations at all. I’ve bought stocks trading near five year lows, and I’ve bought stocks trading near five year highs. I just try to be rational. I’m not afraid to agree with the consensus, if it’s an accurate representation of reality. Here, it isn’t. The model of Lexmark that has emerged in my mind over the past few weeks bears little resemblance to the Lexmark I’ve seen described elsewhere.

Most of the negative comments about Lexmark have focused on the consumer segment. Yet, more than 75% of Lexmark’s profits come from the business segment. The business segment is Lexmark’s franchise. There, the company has managed to build a moat, not a very wide moat, but a moat nonetheless. Lexmark is the only focused, integrated printing company of any consequence. It understands its business customers’ needs, and provides specially tailored solutions that none of its competitors can offer. Worldwide, some very large companies use Lexmark’s products for some very specialized tasks. Among these are retailers, banks, and pharmacies. Lexmark has complete control of their product including the printing technology itself and the software used to manage its printers (i.e., to interface with the user’s computer). Businesses that care about getting these specialized tasks done right (and getting them done cheap) use Lexmark.

Even Lexmark’s competitors have to concede the fact that Lexmark knows printing better than anyone else. Lexmark is the only company that develops its own ink – jet, monochrome, and color laser technologies. It is a vertically integrated printer business like no other. The two competitors most often mentioned as threats to Lexmark are HP and Dell. While everyone will suffer from deep price cuts; I think it’s HP and Dell who should be scared.

Lexmark has the much stronger competitive position. For years to come, it will be launching the best printing products for high ink consumption tasks. Lexmark hasn’t been focused on competing directly with these companies in the consumer segment; that’s going to change because of the emerging photo printing market.

Lexmark isn’t interested in selling hardware. It’s interested in selling ink. Now that there is real demand emerging for high quality printing within the home, Lexmark is going to start going after the consumer market. Over the next few years, Lexmark will be selling more printers in this segment. A few years after that, the company will see strong recurring revenues from ink sales.

Generic ink cartridges are the biggest threat to the high margin printing business. However, I believe, of all the players in this industry, Lexmark will be the least affected. Its highest margin sales are its most insulated sales. Its lowest margin sales, in its least dominant businesses, are where generic ink will hurt the most.

There is also some concern that Dell could always move away from using Lexmark printers. Let them. From what I can see, sales to Dell will not be a particularly significant high free cash flow margin business. There’s no benefit to the Lexmark brand either. That brand is going to become stronger over the next decade, because the quality is already there. Lexmark simply hasn’t been that visible to consumers. The Dell deal doesn’t help build the Lexmark brand. Honestly, I wouldn’t be terribly troubled if Lexmark’s sales to Dell dropped to zero tomorrow. Such an occurrence would not materially affect my valuation of Lexmark.

As far as I can tell, Lexmark’s management is excellent. They understand the printer business better than anyone (they also happen to understand the science of printing better than anyone – CEO Paul Curlander has a PhD in electrical engineering from MIT). Lexmark’s management also sees highly profitable opportunities in printing long – term, despite a very competitive situation short – term. I agree with that assessment.

Within the printer business, there is a real danger of ferocious price competition. However, I do not believe there is a real danger of prolonged ferocious price competition. Lexmark is the company best positioned to weather the storm. It will generate tons of free cash flow, none of which has to be siphoned off to other lines of businesses, as it does at all of Lexmark’s competitors. Lexmark’s high free cash flow margin recurring revenue stream will supply it with more than enough ammunition to outlast its competitors. They may be deep pocketed, but eventually, they will have to answer to Wall Street. Long – term, they can’t compete with Lexmark. It will take them some time to realize that. But, Lexmark has the time.

That’s my assessment of Lexmark on qualitative grounds. How does the stock look quantitatively?

The stock is selling for about 15 times earnings and 10 times cash flow. Right now, a dollar of Lexmark’s stock buys you a dollar of sales. I think that’s a bargain. Not many companies of this caliber sell at a price – to – sales ratio of one.

For the last ten years, Lexmark’s return on equity has not fallen below 20%. During the same period, the company’s return on assets never fell below 10%. The free cash flow margin has generally been in the 5 – 10% range.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lexmark’s ROE and free cash flow fall substantially in the next few years. However, long – term, I believe a return on equity of 15 – 20% and a free cash flow margin of 8 – 10% are sustainable. In fact, if I was forced to pick an exact ROE that Lexmark could sustain I would pick 20%. But, I would also caution you not to expect that for the next five years or so.

The important estimate is the 8 – 10% free cash flow margin. That’s the best way to value Lexmark. At one times sales, you have an 8 – 10% yield, if you think sales can be sustained. If you think sales can grow, you have to factor that into your analysis. At present, a discount rate of 8% seems appropriate.

I never do a discounted free cash flow analysis on this blog, because I feel the variables that go into are something you have to decide on for yourself. I don’t want to slap an exact figure on the value of a company, because I don’t want to suggest that kind of precision. But here, you can clearly see how I’d value Lexmark. I gave you what I think Lexmark’s free cash flow margin will be (8-10%), you know what Lexmark’s sales are ($5.4 billion), and I gave you the discount rate I thought was most appropriate (8%). The only necessary variable I haven’t provided is a sales growth estimate, and I’m not going to provide that, because I don’t want you to think it has anything to do with the next five years.

It doesn’t. I’m looking at this company well beyond that point, and I like what I see. Lexmark will strengthen its brand (with consumers), and people will still be printing. So, yes, I am projecting revenue growth for Lexmark; and yes, it is enough to suggest Lexmark is worth substantially more than $5.5 billion.

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at http://www.gannononinvesting.com

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Here’s a good barometer for the strength of a market rally or sell-off. It’s also worth considering when you are evaluating the purchase of an individual stock.

Simply put, “short interest” is the total number of shares of a stock currently sold short. Each index combines the total number of shares held short for its member firms and produces a report for “NASDAQ short interest” or “NYSE short interest.” Also of interest is the “short interest ratio” which is the number of trading days at average daily volume required to cover total short interest positions.

When the market or a particular stock is under pressure, short sellers suddenly appear to take advantage of the weakness and force prices down. They make money as the stock or index falls.

If the market or stock turns around, many short sellers will immediately buy shares to “cover” their short position. Others will hold on to their position hoping that weakness will return and they’ll make more money. If the rally continues, more and more short sellers will cover their positions as the pain of a losing play hits home. The covering adds more buying to the rally. If the shorts run to cover at the same time, the surge in buying can produce a “short squeeze” with terrific results for folks on the long side of the action.

These days it is important to watch overall short interest to get a feel for the strength of the postwar rally in stocks. For example, NASDAQ short interest was 4.15 billion shares in October versus 4.06 billion shares in September. When the upswing was gathering momentum in June, short interest was 4.6 billion shares. That means that approximately 350 million shares went from the short column to the long column when positions were covered. It was a factor in the positive move. Meanwhile, short interest at the NYSE was 7.43 billion in October, 7.34 billion in September and way up at 8.03 billion in June.

You should check short interest in an individual stock, too. The number of shares held short is important; more important, in our view, is the “short percentage of float.” That’s the number of shares held short versus the total number of shares available for trading. If the percentage for your stock is, say, 5%, short interest probably won’t have a big impact on your trade. However, if it’s 15% or higher, the odds increase that a rally will cause many shorts to cover and perhaps ignite a squeeze.

We noted a high short interest of 26% for homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) when we featured that companyback around March 9, 2002. The firm had just announced a 2-for-1 stock split, and we wanted to take advantage of the excitement over the split to grab some short-term profits. We figured that short covering would help us.

Sure enough, TOL split from around 52 to 26 and then raced to 32 for a 23% gain in a poor market environment.

Even though the DOW and NASDAQ and most stocks are in rally mode today, you should nevertheless take a periodic peak at short interest for a glimpse of the future.

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